Cui Dongshu of Passenger Association: China will account for 59% of the world’s new energy vehicles in the first half of 2022

In 2022, the world’s new energy passenger vehicles will have a strong trend, reaching 4.21 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 71%. Among them, the sales volume in June was 880,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46%. . There are 100,000 commercial vehicles in the world’s new energy vehicles, with new energy passenger vehicles as the main body. In the first half of 2022, China’s new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 59% of the world’s new energy vehicles. Therefore, China’s development is very strong.

The reason for the strong performance of new energy vehicle sales in 2022 is the effective pull of market demand, and the policy-driven shift to marketization. Under the influence of overseas epidemics, European and American new energy policies have strong support, and European new energy vehicles will perform well in 2020. Then, in 2021, China will account for 52% of the world’s new energy vehicles. Due to the sluggish new energy vehicle market in Europe under the epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, China’s world position will return to a high level of 59% in 2022. China’s drive to increase the world’s growth is mainly due to the shift of China’s new energy vehicle market to marketization, forming a strong endogenous growth momentum.

The specific analysis here deliberately does not include the analysis of the commercial vehicle market, mainly because the main sales of new energy trucks and buses in the world are basically in China, and new energy buses are shrinking after the epidemic. Although China’s share has increased, it is easy to mislead the trend. The analysis is of little significance, so the analysis at the beginning of the second paragraph of this article only includes passenger cars.

1. The trend of new energy vehicles in the world

From the broad sense of new energy vehicles, return to the context of the narrow sense of new energy passenger vehicle analysis.

The development of new energy vehicles in the world started with hybrid power, and then gradually entered the era of battery-based vehicles. Pure electric and plug-in hybrids have become the main policy support for new energy.

The development of new energy vehicles in China is also a subsidy process that begins with the support of ordinary hybrids for bus trucks. Then buses entered the era of pure electric vehicles, and hybrid buses became history.

1. The pattern of new energy vehicles in the world

In this analysis, we do not consider passenger cars and special vehicles, but only consider passenger cars. The reason is that the technology of passenger cars and special vehicles is relatively backward, and there is no market space for buses and right-of-way vehicles other than policies in the near future. Therefore, all countries regard passenger vehicles as the focus of new energy development.

From the above data, only the Chinese market for special purpose vehicles and passenger cars is relatively strong, and sales in other markets in the world are negligible. Therefore, we will not analyze the world’s commercial vehicles for the time being. The world’s new energy vehicles mainly refer to new energy passenger vehicles. From January to June, 6,735 electric pickup trucks were sold. The future sales of electric pickup trucks in the world will be our focus in the second half of 2022.

2. The composition of the global new energy vehicle market in a broad sense

In 2012, the number of generalized new energy vehicles in the world was 1.58 million, and by 2015, there were only 1.79 million, and the growth was slow. With the accelerated development of new energy vehicles starting in 2016, Guangyi new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million units in 2016; 3.17 million units in 2017; 4 million units in 2018; 5.15 million units in 2020; There are 9.77 million energy vehicles, of which 3.19 million are ordinary hybrids; from January to June 2022, the sales volume of generalized new energy vehicles is 6.19 million, of which 1.83 million are hybrids, accounting for 30%.

From 2018 to 2021, the proportion of hybrid vehicles will continue to decline and gradually achieve a stable share. Hybrid electric passenger vehicles gradually decreased from 93% of generalized new energy in 2012 to 79% in 2015, and then the proportion of hybrid electric vehicles decreased by 10 percentage points every year. In 2019, the hybrid market share fell by 1 percentage point, but the decline began to accelerate in 2020, and the share still fell to 30% in 2022.

In 2022, pure electric vehicles in new energy vehicles will continue to have a strong trend, the performance of plug-in hybrid vehicles will gradually weaken, and ordinary hybrid vehicles will be relatively stable.

2. The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in the world

1. Performance of new energy passenger vehicles in the world in 2022

l In 2020, sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 2.86 million units, an increase of 41% over the same period in 2019.

l In 2021, the sales of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 6.34 million units, an increase of 122%, exceeding expectations.

l In 2022, the world’s new energy passenger vehicles will have a strong trend, reaching 4.21 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 71%. Among them, the sales volume in June was 880,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 46%.

2. Trend of the world new energy passenger vehicle market

In the first half of 2020, the world’s new energy vehicles faced pressure from a high base, and began to enter a low base stage in July, laying a new cycle of new energy growth. The whole year of 2021 will show an accelerated upward trend, and the growth will be stronger under a low base.

In 2022, the world’s new energy vehicles have a strong start, and basically achieved strong and high growth from January to February. The trend of new energy in March to April slowed down and declined sharply, and the sales of new energy in the world gradually recovered from May to June.

The sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2021 is 6.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 122%; the sales growth rate in 2022 starts with super strong growth, and maintains a rapid growth rate of doubling from January to February. The growth rate from March to May is low, and the growth rate in June is gradually improved.

The deceleration trend has exceeded expectations in recent years. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in 2019 was 2.03 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%, which was strong. In the past few years, the world’s new energy sales have exceeded 60% growth rate. Strong performance in 2021, the annual growth rate rebounded to 122%. 2022 sales growth of 71% remains strong.

3. New energy passenger vehicle market trends around the world

China has 3.31 million passenger cars in 2021, surpassing Europe’s 2.18 million and North America’s 700,000. China has obvious advantages.

China’s sales of 2.51 million vehicles from January to June 2022 included 2.34 million passenger cars, surpassing 1.09 million in Europe and 500,000 in North America. China has obvious advantages.

From the perspective of the regional market trend of new energy vehicles, Europe will always accelerate its upward trend in 2020. In 2021, the European new energy vehicle market will generally remain high and stable, while the Chinese new energy vehicle market will continue to trend strongly in 2021, and will continue to accelerate upward in the third and fourth quarters. The U.S. market for new energy vehicles is relatively sluggish and stable.

In 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will start high, and the trend in Europe will be stable in the first quarter, and the trend in April-June will be weak. The development of new energy in the United States has not yet accelerated, and the Chinese auto market will continue to develop well.

The trend of China’s new energy vehicle market gradually grows rapidly from weak to small, which is relatively different from the trend of traditional vehicles, especially the fluctuation pattern between annual and monthly, which is not only affected by consumption, but also affected by policies and other environments. Therefore, the market changes of new energy vehicles should be more complicated, but with the arrival of the overall trend of market-oriented transformation of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have gradually shifted to a normal operation state recently. Affected by the crisis in Russia and Ukraine, April was a serious abnormality in sales, and it returned to growth in June.

4. New energy penetration rate in countries around the world

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the world generally shows a rapid upward trend, reaching the level of 10% in 2022. Among them, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 22%, Germany will reach 22%, Norway will reach 71%, the United States has only 7%, and Japan has only 2%. %, so the imbalance in the development of new energy in the world is extremely obvious. As the United States increases the penetration of new energy, the world’s new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of strong development.

3. Structural characteristics of new energy passenger vehicles in the world

1. Trend of the world new energy passenger vehicle market

The European new energy market for the whole year of 2021 is affected by the epidemic, and the growth of new energy is strong. 2022 is still affected by the epidemic, and Europe’s share in 2022 will drop significantly compared with 2021. Recently, the growth rate of China’s new energy passenger vehicles has been stronger than the world average growth rate. In 2020, the world share of China’s new energy passenger vehicles will reverse greatly, and will soar in the second half of the year. It will remain strong at 52% in 2021. From January to June 2022, China’s share of new energy in the world will reach 59%, of which China will account for 60% of the world’s share in the second quarter.

The share of sales in European countries has changed more dramatically. At the end of 2020, the shares of France and Germany increased sharply, and then Europe fell rapidly. Countries such as Japan and South Korea are not greatly affected by the policy, and Japan and South Korea are the ones with slower share growth. The growth of the new energy market in other parts of Asia is also average.

2. Product structure of new energy passenger vehicles in the world

In recent years, the proportion of pure electric vehicles has increased, reaching 73.7% in 2022. The hydrogen energy market is seriously sluggish, the share of plug-in hybrids has declined, and a mid-to-high-end pattern similar to traditional vehicles has gradually emerged.

The structure of the world’s new energy vehicles is that SUVs increase, the proportion of sedans decreases, and MPVs are weak. Overall, the high-end performance is outstanding, which puts a lot of pressure on traditional fuel vehicles.

3. The structure of the world’s new energy passenger vehicles – January-June 2022

In 2022, the structure of the world’s new energy vehicles will be purely electric in China, and the main European countries will have strong market penetration. The European market structure is characterized by the same level of pure electric and plug-in hybrid. Non-automobile producing countries such as Norway have strong pure electric vehicles.

China’s A00-class electric vehicles are relatively strong, and European and American countries have a relatively high proportion of A0-class electric vehicles. Comprehensively, economical electric vehicles including A0+A00-class have become the main force. The share of China’s A00-class pure electric vehicles has dropped to 32% of China’s new energy vehicles, maintaining its main market position. The proportion of A0-class electric vehicles in Germany, France and Italy is much higher than that in China.

The proportion of pure electric A-class vehicles in China has increased to 23%, which is much higher than that of Germany, France, and Italy.

The proportion of B-class electric vehicles in the world is relatively high, while the proportion of A-class electric vehicles is relatively low, which is also a good effect of Tesla’s world layout.

4. The competitive landscape of new energy passenger vehicles in the world

1. Structural characteristics of new energy vehicles of various car companies

There are obvious differences in new energy sources among manufacturers in the world. Toyota’s hybrid power is super strong, while Tesla has only pure electric power and occupies an absolute main position.

The plug-in European Volkswagen and BMW performed strongly. Volkswagen’s pure electric development is fast.

2. The share trend of new energy vehicles of various manufacturers

In terms of sales share over the years, Tesla remains the world’s No. 1 and continues to grow stronger. China’s BYD and SAIC Group performed well in new energy, and SAIC Passenger Cars and SAIC-Wuling, two independent automakers, performed well. The performance of new energy vehicles of Volkswagen in Germany is strong. In 2021, it will be seriously affected by the epidemic. In addition, the sprint at the end of last year will be weak at the beginning of the year. BMW Group and Germany’s Mercedes-Benz remain in the second echelon.

The competition in the new energy wave of luxury cars is relatively fierce. Tesla in the United States has performed extremely well, prompting Mercedes-Benz and BMW to increase investment in new energy vehicles. At present, the improvement speed of BMW and Mercedes-Benz performance cars is not very fast. Tesla’s sales are currently the increment of model 3 and model Y, realizing the super mass production of main models.

The performance of China’s new forces is generally stronger, especially the performance of Leapao and Nezha.

5. The market trend of pure electric new energy vehicle structure

1. The world structure of pure electric

China’s share of the world’s pure electric vehicle market is relatively outstanding. From 2016 to 2018, its share was around 60%. In 2019 and 2020, the share slightly decreased to 48% in 2020; it will rise again in 2021. To 60% of the share, the share from January to June 2022 will reach 63% of the share level, which is relatively excellent.

The share of pure electric vehicles in Europe rose from 16% in 2018 to 23% in 2019, 36% in 2021, and fell to 21% in January-June 2022.

From the perspective of the pure electric share of car companies, Tesla’s share of pure electric vehicles has been relatively stable, and has always been at a share level of more than 20% since 2020.

SAIC’s share rose from 4.8% in 2018 to 7.4% in 2019, then rose to 10.4% in 2020 and 14.4% in 2021, with a relatively strong performance of 10.6% in January-June 2022.

In general, BYD’s share remains relatively stable, maintaining a share level of more than 7% from 2017 to 2021, but its share will rise to 10.7% in 2022, which is a good performance.

2. The intermixed world structure

China’s share of plug-in hybrids in the world continues to strengthen, ranging from 30% to 50% in 2017 and 2018, and will drop to 25% in 2020. In 2021, China’s share of plug-in hybrids in the world will be 32%, and it will rise to 48% in 2022. China has shown a super performance in the world’s plug-in hybrid market.

The share of plug-in hybrids in Europe rose from 25% in 2019 to 65% in 2020 and then fell to 56% in 2021. It will drop to 40% in 2022, a larger decline.

In terms of the plug-in hybrid share of car companies, BYD has the most outstanding performance. BYD’s world plug-in hybrid share in 2020 will drop to a low level of 9%, but it will rise to 15% in 2021, and rise to 30% of the world’s plug-in hybrid share from January to June 2022, reflecting BYD’s Good performance in the plug-in hybrid market.

Volkswagen’s share of plug-in hybrids rose from 8% in 2019 to 17% in 2020, and fell to 9% in 2022. BMW’s plug-in hybrid share has also declined significantly in the past two years, falling to 10% in 2021, while Geely Volvo’s plug-in hybrid accounts for 9% of the world’s share.

3. Hybrid world structure

In the general hybrid market, the hybrid performance of Japanese cars is relatively strong. Japan’s hybrid share has dropped from around 50% of the world’s share in 2016 to 2018 to 40% in 2019, 37% in 2020, 27% in 2021, and 27% in 2022. % share.

The share of ordinary hybrids in China has risen from 11.9% in 2019 to 19.4% in 2021, and to 22% in January-June 2022, showing a relatively strong performance.

Judging from the performance of car companies in the general hybrid market, Japan’s Toyota and Honda are the two major hybrid companies, which now account for 75% of the world’s hybrid market share, and their performance is relatively good.

Source of the article: Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Association

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