September Market Review
The domestic epidemic situation and control have escalated rapidly, and the policy-driven approach has entered a stable period. The pace of market recovery slowed down in September. In September, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense was 1.923 million, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% and a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. The month-on-month growth rate was lower than in previous years. New energy manufacturers made collective efforts. In September, the new energy market reached a new high. The overall retail sales reached 611,000 units, an increase of 82.9% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 15.4%, and the penetration rate increased to 31.8%.
Epidemic disrupts auto market in October
In October, the epidemic situation was “multi-point, wide-ranging, and frequent”. The task of prevention and control was arduous and arduous, and the auto market faced certain pressure. The favorable policy is about to expire, the terminal discount has begun to strengthen, and the fishtail effect is expected to appear.
1. Manufacturers’ sales trends
In mid-October, the overall market discount rate for passenger cars was about 14.0%, and the overall price expanded compared with the previous month (13.7%). Under the pressure of the annual target, according to the October retail target survey, the manufacturers that accounted for about 80% of the overall market achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow passenger car retail market this month will be around 1.91 million units, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. %, of which the retail sales of new energy is about 550,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.5%, and the penetration rate is about 28.8%.
2. Weekly trend estimation
At the beginning of October, the number of infected people increased again, holiday travel and consumption performance were not as good as in previous years, and the daily averages of major manufacturers’ retail sales in the first and second weeks were -26% and 13% respectively year-on-year. Under the general anti-epidemic policy of “dynamic clearing”, localities quickly discovered and dealt with the disease, and the number of infected people dropped effectively. The market is expected to climb steadily in the third week, with a year-on-year rate of about 10%. Considering that several autumn auto shows will resume at the end of October, manufacturers will step up their annual sales tasks before the expiration of the purchase tax and other consumption-promoting policies, and enter the end-of-month impulse stage in the fourth week. The average retail sales will reach about 27% year-on-year. It is estimated that retail sales in October will reach 1.910 million units.
3. Market uncertainty increased in October
From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.7% year-on-year, of which automotive consumer goods increased by 0.4% year-on-year. The consumer market generally recovered steadily, but the growth rate declined in September. Fiscal, tax and financial support and other macro policies are actively exerting force, which is expected to bring some recovery momentum to the economy. The number of local consumption promotion policies that took effect was at a high level compared with the same period of previous years, and together with the preferential purchase tax policy, it formed a stable support for the auto market. In the short term, Tianjin will add 20,000 annual lottery indicators in the second round, and Guangdong and Hainan have also stated that they will increase the number of indicators, which fully reflects the importance that local governments attach to automobile consumption. Manufacturers have added incentives to ensure sufficient supply. The survey results of the China Automobile Dealers Association showed that the comprehensive inventory coefficient of auto dealers at the end of September was 1.47, an increase of 0.7% from the previous month. Due to the frequent occurrence of local epidemics recently, a large number of new epidemic-related cities have been added, and the national epidemic prevention and control has been strengthened again. Due to the increase in the size of the market affected by the epidemic, the static management of dealers has hindered the flow of consumers, and the sales pressure in the fourth quarter was greater. A number of large and medium-sized cities have postponed the auto show originally scheduled for September-October to late October-November, and the overall sales rhythm has shifted later.
Near the end of the year, new energy production capacity is further released, new products are launched in batches, and manufacturers accelerate the distribution of new vehicles. Stimulated by the expiry of new energy state subsidies and local license policies, it will lead to early purchases at the end of the year, which will form a strong support for the overall auto market.
To sum up, the retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense in October are expected to be 1.910 million units, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.7% month-on-month; of which, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be 550,000 units, an increase of 73.5% year-on-year, and a month-on-month decrease of 10.0%, mainly for the head. The seasonal effect of manufacturers, the penetration rate is 28.8%.
Source: Passenger Association